Solar photovoltaic is the absolute leader in development
Let me talk about energy transformation first. We say that energy transformation is a low-carbon, clean direction. We can also see that a very important content in the middle is that a new round of electrification may also mean electric energy replacement in China. We can see that in the final energy demand, in fact, the oil has always been a big one in the final users. We can see that in the year 2000, only 15% of the global terminal energy comes from electricity, but it is In 2017, 19% was added, and the current total global electricity consumption is 22,200 TWh. We predict that by 2040, this number will be added to 1/4. And in 2018, the power sector has surpassed the sum of capital investment in fossil energy such as oil and gas. This is also a very important change. In the history, the initial investment in electricity surpassed the recreational and fossil energy.
This is the outlook for 2040. The data in the just released International Energy Outlook Statement is that by 2040, the addition of electricity will be twice the energy added, that is, the annual average will reach 2.1%. This addition can be seen, there is an important feature, the first is from the development of our country, the second is mainly satisfied by the new energy and natural gas, and the new ones are all from renewable energy and natural gas. And one very important aspect, we can see that in the share of end users, the first thing that industrial users have become a feature of industrial users is only about 1/3, and more users include users like electric cars and smart homes. Will bring profound changes to the entire structure of energy.
Let's look at the incremental status of power generation in different energy types. The top is 2006-2011, the middle is 2012-2017, and the latter is the situation we look forward to 2018-2023. This is coal and natural gas fossil energy, gradually Adding is greatly reduced. We can see that wind power is being added quickly. Adding more is photovoltaic, which is the addition of solar energy, as well as hydropower, biomass and nuclear. We can see that in the next five years, there will be more than 1 billion kilowatts of new installed capacity in the world, and renewable energy will account for 70%.
(PPT) Let's look at the figures of different countries. At the top of the list, China is the leader of renewable energy. The red color is the number of our country. Second, we will also see very important aspects. The green ones are coming. The more countries, not just the countries that are currently the primary renewable energy source, including the current development, many of our countries will also become the primary developing countries of renewable energy, and even include the traditional oil and gas producing countries.
Let's zoom in on this and see some specific conditions of renewable energy here. We can see that solar photovoltaic is a sure leader. I want to emphasize that PV is not developed because it is a low-carbon, clean energy source, but it will become the cheapest. It may be the cost of inductive cost and the lowest cost of the system. This kind of time is 2018-2023. Distributed photovoltaics will also be ushered in a large-scale development and centralized or even equal, so that China is still the top PV installer.
We will see later that PV and electric vehicles are like double-sided coins. They have a profound impact on the energy system. It is very interesting. Although PV has so many advantages, it does bring great challenges. Because there is no sun in some time, there is wind in it, and there is no wind in some time, so we call it the energy that can be changed. This kind of energy change has brought about a challenge to the energy system. At present, as long as 5% like ours Under the condition of changing energy sources, these problems can be solved by relying on the existing sensitivity of the system. However, if the share continues to increase, it will be necessary to build more energy storage, and even add a lot of capital. In the event that there will be no sun in the future, there may be no wind, and the higher the share, the higher the system will be. The sensitivity may say that the system's own ability to respond raises higher demands. We can see that with our increasing share, we can see the time in 2030. Looking at this change in numbers, many countries will make great changes to the sensitivity. It is not only a skill issue, but also involves Many of the guidelines and plans, such as more sensitive electricity prices, may be better system planning, which also includes higher requirements for energy storage and demand side response. Therefore, we also clearly put forward the view that the sensitivity of the system is an important pillar of the future power system. Tomorrow, our expert Simon Muller is the director of the IEA Energy System Department. He will further expand the energy transformation and the network. Explain these ideas.
This is basically the case with energy, but to sum up, the first one, new electrification is taking place globally, and the share of terminal electricity is constantly rising. Second, the newly added power comes primarily from renewable energy sources, especially landscapes that can change energy and bring new challenges to the power system.
Let's look at the status of electric vehicles and power systems. Let's say that a more optimistic number, the demand for electric vehicles in 2017 exceeds the total demand for electricity in Greece, but if we look at the share, it only accounts for 0.24% compared with the total electricity consumption. If we take the second round Electric vehicles, slow electric vehicles, and tricycles all account for 0.5% of the total electricity demand. Just now we also said that Norway is a forward country for electric vehicles, and it does not account for 1%. But we also want to see this rapid addition, the right is 2030 to 30% of the share of electric vehicles, the Chinese government is a leader, the Minister of Clean Energy is China's initiative to propose 30% electric vehicles by 2030 Today, I saw that it is very encouraging to say that we have to say higher goals. We all say that we are all electric, so there may be a bigger push. If we look at it, even in the 2030-EV30 scenario, it will be 2030. There will be 230 million electric cars, and there may be nearly 100 million electric cars in China, so what kind of concept of their electricity demand will be, this is a very fast added number. We can see that the special 2025 is more accelerated. I don't specifically explain the above figures. It is about 2040. If the global demand for electricity is based on the IEA's forecast of 35,500 terawatt hours in 2040, the electricity consumption of electric vehicles, if According to optimistic estimates or positive programs, it will surpass 40 million TWh, and this share will exceed 10%. This is a very huge addition, and it is a huge addition from the affirmative figure. Just like more and more photovoltaics in the power system, if there are more and more electric car users in the user, it is a battle, and it is also an opportunity.
(PPT) We can also see that these curves are the curve of electricity demand and the curve of road traffic by car. It can be seen that if 100 million electric vehicles are charged together, whether it is fast charging or Slowly charge, evenly, if they are charged together under extreme conditions, they will bring more than 1 billion kilowatts of load, and China's current installed capacity is less than 2 billion kilowatts. This is a fantasy that cannot be imagined. The development of electric vehicles will definitely promote the optimization of the power system. This is not a choice. It does not seem to have any effect as it is now. There is no impact on the time when photovoltaics are not much, but more and more time has to abandon the wind and abandon the light. The problem, the addition of electric vehicles will inevitably require corresponding changes in the power system to match. In the beginning of the discussion, we also said that this kind of optimization is imperative. The dynamic price of electricity will encourage the system to actively optimize. For example, we can charge at night, but as long as two electricity prices, there will be more sensitive electricity prices. More real-time electricity prices? This will provide new conditions for the establishment of skills and the establishment of business models. In addition, skills, smart charging skills are also very sophisticated, can be two-way, but in practice I have to ask, including the international same, the practical ideals are full, there is really no real commercialization to complete two-way charging, for example Demand-side management through electric vehicles can provide valuable auxiliary services to the grid in turn. In addition to balancing the load, frequency adjustment, voltage support or power coefficient calibration is still a long way to go.
Going back, the timing of this demand side response may be an increasingly important aspect of the battle, and the IEA statement has also been made. The green color is now that electric vehicles will provide the power system sensitivity. Support has also been evaluated, but I think there are many variables here.
Finally, when it comes to hydrogen energy, because fuel cells are now very important, (PPT), we can see that hydrogen energy, in addition to fuel for electric vehicles, is also a very useful energy storage, which can turn changeable energy into Method of energy storage. From this point of view, how can we better integrate the use of power grids, hydrogen networks, and electric vehicles, and it can make its value even bigger. I once told some friends in the business community, if you do it. Fuel cells may not be worthwhile. If you add energy storage, or even good chemical raw materials, you will get more added value, and you may complete commercial conditions in advance.
I will not talk about it at any time. The infrastructure of energy and the infrastructure of transportation are all ten years, twenty years or even a hundred years. I think that from the perspective of the business community, the time for these capital contributions must be It is necessary to look at the long-term changes or trends in the past ten or twenty years, so that we can do the right thing now.
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