Why is the price of PV modules not falling?

Since 2018, the price of the photovoltaic industry chain has dropped more and more, and the price of some links has been declining all year round. Taking Longji shares as an example, the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers has been reduced by 10 times.

But this trend of price cuts has not lasted. On the eve of the Spring Festival, Longji and Central suddenly announced the price increase. The price of polycrystalline silicon tablets rose once. The price of the linked single crystal was raised from 3.05 yuan/sheet to 3.15 yuan/piece.

One month later, on March 22, Longji shares lowered the price of monocrystalline silicon again. The domestic price was lowered by 0.08 yuan/piece, from 3.15 yuan/piece to 3.07 yuan/piece, and the downward fluctuation was 2.64%.

Immediately after the battery showed a price cut, on March 25, Tongwei shares issued a battery price reduction notice, and the price of polycrystalline PERC battery dropped from 0.91-0.96 yuan/watt to 0.87-0.93 yuan/watt. The price of single crystal PERC cells dropped from 1.26-1.27 yuan per watt to 1.21-1.22 yuan / watt.

At the end of March, silicon prices also ushered in an avalanche, and some companies have now reported prices below 60 yuan/kg.

This chaotic ups and downs have made people appreciate the rapid changes in shopping malls. Due to the high inventory of manufacturers, the trend of shopping mall prices has been affected. At the same time, the decline in value-added tax has also affected the pricing strategy of enterprises.

The upstream price cut gives the part of the component a profitable space, but so far, the price of the component has not fallen.

A brokerage analyst showed: "The new capacity of silicon material is released a lot, the price pressure is very high; the silicon wafer is relatively lacking, so there is pricing power. The component has many orders with long-term lock price, so the change is the slowest."

The long-term lock price, that is, the current transaction is a long time before the good order, the price will not be adjusted. According to the knowledge, at the time, the first half of the domestic first-line component companies 2019, including the first-line component companies such as Jingke, Jingao, Trina Solar, Longji Leye and Dongfang Risheng, are now fully filled, some enterprises Production capacity is now in the third or even fourth quarter.

In 2018, Jingke continued to maintain its position as the world's largest component in terms of shipments of 11.6GW and 12.8% of its market share. Jingao ranks second in the world with 8.8GW of shipments. Ranked third is Trina Solar, with shipments of 8.1GW. Longji Leye ranked fourth with 7.2 GW of shipments, and another company that doubled its shipments by two times and ranked three places in the rankings was 5.3 GW. The components of these companies are basically export-oriented.

Ask if the previously signed order is a tax-inclusive price, and whether the newly negotiated order will consider the tax rate reduction. A component manufacturer indicated: "No, big orders are all signed with a tax-free price, and the tax rate adjustment is supplemented."

Since most of the capacity of the first-line component suppliers is supplying foreign orders, the domestic supply chain, the price of upstream auxiliary materials including glass and plastic film, and the price of the battery that has been reduced but have not yet reached the expectations of component manufacturers, etc. The price was once stable.

The insiders pointed out that the adjustment of the price depends on the new policy situation in 2019. The first-line components have been scheduled for production. It is estimated that the necessity of component price reduction before the second quarter is not large, and it will not be ruled out.

The price fluctuations on the battery pieces have not reached expectations. A large component manufacturer has indicated that it is impossible to maintain profiteering in this respect. It is only sustainable to return to normal profitability: “Prices should be formed in the market. But the big set is efficient. The era of high PERC battery prices is now complete."

Solar charge controller

2019 component price logic

The component occupies 50% of the construction cost of the power station. According to the 2019 auction rules, the project will rely on the price of the electricity price. Therefore, the high cost performance will be the only standard for the project to select products. Regarding the photovoltaic module manufacturing industry, the cost will be further reduced, so that it can have a place in the future bidding projects and equipment selection of affordable bases.

The decline in component prices is especially important for power plant systems. Liu Jianping, director of the Three Gorges New Energy Technology and Environmental Protection Department, agrees with Liao Wei that “In addition to system integration, energy storage skills application and PV+ exploration, we attach great importance to component and battery skills and components under the parity policy. Mismatch issues and the development of component testing standards. After all, components account for 50% of the cost of construction, and component skills have an immediate impact on cost reductions."

Regarding the price trend of 2019 components, first-line component manufacturers have long predicted.

In November 2018, at the 2nd meeting of the 2nd Council of China Photovoltaic Professional Association and the symposium on the situation and innovation of China's photovoltaic industry, Zhong Baoshen, chairman of Longji Co., Ltd., stated: “All current skills and materials cost of PV professional are It is clear, the bottom line of the cost reduction is also clear, the profession does not have the ability to cut prices substantially. So even if the price can be reduced, the ups and downs are very limited, certainly not lower than the "floor price" of 1.55 yuan / W."

Zhu Xinshan, chairman of GCL Group, said in the 2018 SNEC theme speech: "In 2019, the production capacity of GCL will reach 150,000 tons, which can meet the production requirements of 40 GW of components. What should I do with such a large amount? The trend and 23% of the component power are measured, and the price of GCL's components will drop to around 1.5 yuan per watt."

After all, the shopping mall is constantly changing. Zhengchuan New Energy President Lu Chuan expressed his opinion on the component price in 2019: "In the form of bidding, it is more reasonable to let the mall find the price, find the skill, and the electricity cost is low. Advantages. Once the mall enters the tender, I estimate that the price of the component will change this year, the price of polycrystalline components will pick up, the price of single crystal will drop, and maintain a price difference."

Seeing a domestic component supplier, the other party is not satisfied with the price reduction of the components: "From the current point of view, there is no room for price reduction. If major manufacturers are desperately trying to improve component production, they may cut prices and fight price wars, but they are very unhealthy. Long-term should be a price increase."



The "price policy" on the back of the price cut

Affordable Internet access is the policy that every PV seeker seeks, but on the back of the constantly suppressed price, how to ensure brand value is still worth thinking about.

In the process of seeing the interview, the author found that in the past few years, after increasing R&D investment and accelerating scientific and technological innovation, the photovoltaic industry has made remarkable progress in terms of skills, and product price reduction and exploration have become inevitable.

With the implementation of the 531 New Deal in 2018, there are also many bright spots in the private sector, and some PV companies still maintain a steady increase in performance. According to the public data, 19 of the 22 A-share PV listed companies completed their profits in 2018, of which 7 companies achieved positive net profit growth and 1 completed losses.

In 2019, the growth rate of domestic PV shopping malls slowed down, and any enterprise is under pressure. After the upstream industrial chain continues to cut prices, it can be found that this will not only complete the profit, but also enhance the brand's competitive strength. While stimulating the capacity demand, it also stabilizes the dealers and plays a key role in the sustainable development of the company.

If the supply exceeds demand, the photovoltaic industry will usher in the buyer's shopping mall, which is bound to usher in price cuts. The product gives the people the opportunity to choose, and the price guarantees the value of the people. As far as the company is concerned, it is the result of continuous skill reduction and the final elimination tournament.

In the past few years, under the impetus of a series of front-runners, the battery and component skills have been fully developed. The competition of PERC, double glass, half-chip, double-sided, stacked tile and heterojunction has made the power station investors new to the components. Skills have more waiting, such as perovskite, double-sided N-type and other new skills.

The chief security officer of Yijing Optoelectronics Technology said: "Affordable Internet access should reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the value of efficiency increase is greater than the cost reduction. From the industrial chain coefficient, the effect of efficiency increase is better than cost reduction."

Price reduction is a strategy for PV companies, but for companies, quality and service are the foundation for success. Constantly changing the customs, carefully crafting, and creating larger shopping malls with products is permanent.



We are a research and development, production, sales and service, specializing in the production of MPPT controllers.InverterNational key high-tech enterprises of UPS, solar energy, wind energy and other energy power products. The main products include industrial grade MPPT solar controllers, solar inverters, solar power systems, UPS and other energy products. It is a leading manufacturer of MPPT controllers in China.

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