What will happen to the photovoltaic market in 2019?
2018-12-27 11:15:27
2018 is a difficult year for the photovoltaic industry, especially for China's photovoltaic industry.
According to GTM estimates, global PV installations will decline by 15% in 2018, only 85GW. The profits of the world's mainstream PV manufacturers have also declined. In 2018, all the bad things have happened. China and the United States, which are advancing the two major markets for the global PV industry, have suffered twists and turns, even retrogression.
In 2017, China's new PV installations accounted for about 50% of the global market. In 2018, China's 531 New Deal imposed restrictions on large-scale ground projects, and adjusted the on-grid tariff subsidy policy, which led to a sharp drop in demand during the year. The price has therefore fallen by about a third.
In 2018, the installed capacity of photovoltaics is about 40GW, which is close to 15GW compared with the new installed capacity of 54GW in 2017.
And the United States, after President Trump announced the tariffs on the photovoltaic industry this year, all importedPhotovoltaic moduleThe price has risen by about 30%.
In the past, when one or two markets fell, there would be other markets that rose and replaced their status, but in 2018, the world’s first and second largest markets simultaneously showed a decline in demand, and it is clear that there is no A market has such a large demand to fill this gap.
Japan’s demand in previous years has also been weak, while India and Africa have developed rapidly, but their scale has not yet had a large impact on global installed capacity.
It is gratifying to note that although the overall situation of the photovoltaic industry in the past 18 years is not good, the decline in component prices is conducive to the decline of system costs, making PV projects more cost-effective.
Fortunately, it will come soon in 2018, then will the photovoltaic industry in 2019 be once again ushered in a big opportunity? There may not be a simple answer to this question.
In the US market, the country signed a contract for 8.5 GW of solar power plants in the first half of 2018, setting a record for the industry. Most of these orders will not be put into use until 2019 or later. According to the global PV market installed forecast released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the US solar industry will grow again in 2019.
At the same time, we see that the demand for solar energy for residential and commercial use in the United States is increasing. Compared with solar energy for utilities, residential and commercial solar energy is not susceptible to tariffs, and both markets have added energy storage. The combination of storage has become more and more popular.
In China, Jingke’s management recently said that lower component prices have made power plant projects better than expected and more likely to compete with traditional power generation. Component sales at the end of 2018 are still at a lower price, but if manufacturers can maintain higher sales, they can afford lower prices.
The European market is recovering. As the EU lifts the “double opposition” to China's PV products and the non-subsidized projects in Europe, the industry has seen more room for development, and people believe that the future of solar energy is bright.
According to GTM estimates, global PV installations will decline by 15% in 2018, only 85GW. The profits of the world's mainstream PV manufacturers have also declined. In 2018, all the bad things have happened. China and the United States, which are advancing the two major markets for the global PV industry, have suffered twists and turns, even retrogression.
In 2017, China's new PV installations accounted for about 50% of the global market. In 2018, China's 531 New Deal imposed restrictions on large-scale ground projects, and adjusted the on-grid tariff subsidy policy, which led to a sharp drop in demand during the year. The price has therefore fallen by about a third.
In 2018, the installed capacity of photovoltaics is about 40GW, which is close to 15GW compared with the new installed capacity of 54GW in 2017.
And the United States, after President Trump announced the tariffs on the photovoltaic industry this year, all importedPhotovoltaic moduleThe price has risen by about 30%.
In the past, when one or two markets fell, there would be other markets that rose and replaced their status, but in 2018, the world’s first and second largest markets simultaneously showed a decline in demand, and it is clear that there is no A market has such a large demand to fill this gap.
Japan’s demand in previous years has also been weak, while India and Africa have developed rapidly, but their scale has not yet had a large impact on global installed capacity.
It is gratifying to note that although the overall situation of the photovoltaic industry in the past 18 years is not good, the decline in component prices is conducive to the decline of system costs, making PV projects more cost-effective.
Fortunately, it will come soon in 2018, then will the photovoltaic industry in 2019 be once again ushered in a big opportunity? There may not be a simple answer to this question.
In the US market, the country signed a contract for 8.5 GW of solar power plants in the first half of 2018, setting a record for the industry. Most of these orders will not be put into use until 2019 or later. According to the global PV market installed forecast released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the US solar industry will grow again in 2019.
At the same time, we see that the demand for solar energy for residential and commercial use in the United States is increasing. Compared with solar energy for utilities, residential and commercial solar energy is not susceptible to tariffs, and both markets have added energy storage. The combination of storage has become more and more popular.
In China, Jingke’s management recently said that lower component prices have made power plant projects better than expected and more likely to compete with traditional power generation. Component sales at the end of 2018 are still at a lower price, but if manufacturers can maintain higher sales, they can afford lower prices.
The European market is recovering. As the EU lifts the “double opposition” to China's PV products and the non-subsidized projects in Europe, the industry has seen more room for development, and people believe that the future of solar energy is bright.
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