Power installed capacity will maintain high growth for a long time
the Internet
2019-04-11 09:33:42
At that time, the transformation of power and power continued to advance, and the adjustment of power supply structure was imperative. Under the situation of customary transformation and the improvement of electrification level and the re-electrification of clean power development planning, the State Grid Power Research Institute discussed the trend of power supply in China's medium and long-term.
Land advantage power,PVThe rapid increase will gradually become the main body of China's power supply structure. Although the subsidy retreat will slow down the growth of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the short term, the economic competitiveness of the two will gradually emerge. Both will maintain a strong increase in momentum throughout the planning period. In particular, photovoltaic power generation, as component costs continue to decline, will become the largest increase in power during the planning period. In the case of customary transformation, in 2035, the installed capacity of land-based power and photovoltaic power generation was 700 million and 730 million kilowatts, and increased to 970 million and 1.27 billion kilowatts in 2050. In the case of electrification, the installed capacity of terrestrial power and photovoltaic power generation in 2035 was 830 million and 870 million kilowatts, and increased to 1.30 billion and 1.56 billion kilowatts in 2050. In 2050, the combined installed capacity of land-based power and photovoltaic power generation accounted for more than half of the power supply structure, and the power generation accounted for more than one-third. The layout of wind power installed capacity will still be dominated by the “Three North” area, and the proportion of wind power installed capacity in the “Three North” area will remain above 60% for a long time. The installation of photovoltaic power generation should be integrated and distributed, and the proportion of installed capacity in the northwest region in 2050 will still exceed 1/3.
The sea superior power and solar thermal power generation technologies are gradually becoming more sophisticated, and the installed capacity continues to increase, but the overall planning is limited. Compared with land-based power and photovoltaic power generation, the two are more system-friendly: the sea superior power is better than the land superior power resources, the output fluctuation is small, and the interval load center is close. The photothermal power generation can be the system power as a controllable power source. Balance and peaking make a contribution. With the advancement of technology, the installed capital of the two will continue to decline, but by 2050, compared with the land superior power, photovoltaic power generation is still not economically competitive, and the power supply location is limited, so the increase planning is limited. In 2035 and 2050, the installed capacity of the sea's dominant power will reach 0.3-400 million kilowatts, and between 70 million and 0.8 billion kilowatts. In 2035 and 2050, the installed capacity of CSP will reach 0.4-0.5 billion kilowatts, 150-160 million kilowatts.
Coal power is gradually transformed from a power supply main body to a power supply main body, and will continue to play an important role in China's power system. In order to cope with the challenges brought by the new power generation of volatility to the safe and stable operation of the power system, the coal-fired power unit needs to better exert peaking and standby effects in the future. In both cases, the installed capacity of coal power in 2035 was 1.02 billion and 1.28 billion kilowatts. In 2050, it was 640 million and 780 million kilowatts. During the planning period, the installed capacity and power generation of coal-fired power will show a trend of rising first and then decreasing, and it is estimated that it will reach its peak during the period of 2025-2030. As the coal-fired power unit assumes a functional change in the system, its hours of use will gradually decrease, so the power generation peaks at a peak earlier than the peak capacity of the installed capacity. In terms of layout, coal-fired power units will exist more in the power supply end. First, the economic advantages of coal-based power generation will be exerted. Second, the environmental pressure in the eastern and central regions can be alleviated. Third, it can be combined with new power consumption and delivery.
Gas and electricity are bound by the elements of capital, and the space for increase is limited. China's natural gas resources are scarce, and the cost of gas is high, which constrains the development of gas and electricity. From the perspective of power generation, gas-fired power generation has no economics in the near future. As the new power costs continue to decline, the economic competitiveness of gas power in the future will be more limited. From the perspective of peak shaving, under the power supply structure of China at that time, after establishing a reasonable market mechanism and launching a sensitive transformation, it can stimulate a considerable peaking potential of coal-fired power. In the future, as the cost of energy storage continues to decline, the business model of demand response is gradually enriched and interconnected. The sensitive and optimized operation of the power grid can be improved day by day. The characters of gas and electricity in peak shaving are not irreplaceable. According to the overall optimization plan of the system, the installed capacity of gas and electricity in 2035 and 2050 is about 160 million-210 million kilowatts, 170 million-310 million kilowatts. In the case of re-electrification, because the new power installation plan is larger, the required system conditioning can be stronger, so the gas capacity is higher.
Nuclear power capacity has increased steadily, and development is limited by site space and planning and construction period. Nuclear power is a clean, reliable power source with a high number of hours of use, in wind power,PVIn the case of large-scale planning, it is possible to make greater contributions to the system's power balance, and nuclear power should be efficiently deployed on the basis of ensuring safety. However, China's nuclear power development is affected by factors such as the location of the power station and the planning and construction period. It is estimated that the installed capacity in 2035 and 2050 will reach 180 million and 220 million kilowatts.
Hydropower development is constrained by resource conditions and its potential for growth is relatively limited. Hydropower is an important strategic resource for China, and it is an important guarantee for the country to achieve the goal of transforming power cleanliness and accomplishing non-fossil power. However, China's hydropower development potential is limited, and it will be concentrated in the southwest region, and the comprehensive development cost is on the rise. Hydropower still has a certain potential to develop before 2035, and then tends to be full. It is estimated that hydropower installed capacity will reach about 500 million and 540 million kilowatts in 2035 and 2050. In addition, the pumped storage capacity is steadily unfolding, and the installed capacity in 2035 and 2050 will reach about 100 million and 160 million kilowatts.
In the future, as the proportion of clean power generation increases significantly, the intensity of carbon emissions will drop significantly. In 2035, the proportion of non-fossil power generation will reach 58%, and in 2050 it will be nearly 80%. In the case of customary transformation and re-electrification, the carbon dioxide emission level per unit of power generation in 2035 will be reduced to 325 g/kWh and 317 g/kWh, which is about 56% and 55% of the 2017 level; and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of power generation in 2050. The level is reduced to 151g/kWh and 129g/kWh, which is about 26% and 22% of the 2017 level. The carbon emissions of the power system will peak around 2025, with a peak level of about 4.5 billion to 5 billion tons. In 2050, the power system emissions will drop to about 1.8 billion to 1.9 billion tons, which will strongly support China's low-carbon transformation.
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