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Power installation will gradually become the main body of China's power supply structure

  • Source:the Internet
  • Release on :2019-04-08
The current energy and power transformation continues to advance, and power supply structure adjustment is imperative. Under the situation of customary transformation and electrification, and the re-electrification of clean energy development planning, the State Grid Energy Research Institute has conducted research on the trend of medium and long-term power supply in China.


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From the overall point of view, China's power supply installation plan will adhere to a steady and rapid increase. The results of the system planning flashed. In 2035, the installed capacity of power supply will reach about 3.5 billion to 4.1 billion kilowatts, and in 2050 it will reach about 4.3 billion to 5.2 billion kilowatts. Land advantage power,PVIt will be the fastest type of power source in China, and China's power supply structure will be developed in the direction of increasingly clean and low carbon. Considering that the new energy power generation has strong volatility and uncertainty, and the number of hours of use is relatively low, in order to deal with the power, electricity balance and peak shaving brought about by the new energy planning, it is still necessary to coordinate the development of various power sources. . The capacity of conventional power sources such as gas, nuclear power and hydropower will not stop increasing due to the decline in the cost of new energy installations. Although the installed capacity of coal power will rise first and then decline, it will continue to play in China's power system during the planning period. Important effect. In terms of categories, the status of various primary power sources is as follows:

The rapid increase of land-based power and photovoltaic power generation will gradually become the main body of China's power supply structure. Although subsidies will slow down the growth rate of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the short term, the economic competitiveness of the two will gradually flash in the medium and long term. Both will maintain a weak increase in momentum throughout the planning period. In particular, photovoltaic power generation, with the component cost continues to decline, will become the largest increase in the power supply during the planning period. In the case of customary transformation, in 2035, the installed capacity of land-based power and photovoltaic power generation was 700 million and 730 million kilowatts, and increased to 970 million and 1.27 billion kilowatts in 2050. In the case of electrification, the installed capacity of terrestrial power and photovoltaic power generation in 2035 was 830 million and 870 million kilowatts, and increased to 1.30 billion and 1.56 billion kilowatts in 2050. In 2050, the combined installed capacity of land-based power and photovoltaic power generation accounted for more than half of the power supply structure, and the power generation accounted for more than one-third. The layout of wind power installed capacity will still be dominated by the “Three North” region, and the proportion of wind power installed capacity in the “Three North” region will remain above 60% for a long time. The installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation should be concentrated and distributed, and the proportion of installed capacity in the northwest region in 2050 will still exceed 1/3.

The sea superior power and photothermal power generation technologies are gradually becoming more sophisticated, and the installed capacity continues to increase, but the overall planning is limited. Compared with land-based power and photovoltaic power generation, the two are more system-friendly: the sea superior power is better than the land superior power resources, the output is small, and the load center is close. The photothermal power generation as a controllable power source can be the system power. Balance and peaking contribute. Following the advancement of technology, the installed capital of the two will continue to decline. However, by 2050, compared with the land-based power and photovoltaic power generation, it is still not economically competitive, and the power supply location is limited, so the planning is limited. In 2035 and 2050, the installed capacity of the sea's dominant power will reach 0.3-400 million kilowatts, and between 70 million and 0.8 billion kilowatts. In 2035 and 2050, the installed capacity of CSP will reach 0.4-0.5 billion kilowatts, 150-160 million kilowatts.

Coal power has gradually changed from a power supply main body to a power supply main body, and will continue to play an important role in China's power system. In order to effectively cope with the challenges brought by the dynamic and stable operation of the dynamic new energy generation to the power system, the coal power units in the future will better exert the effects of peak shaving and standby. In both cases, the installed capacity of coal power in 2035 was 1.02 billion and 1.28 billion kilowatts. In 2050, it was 640 million and 780 million kilowatts. During the planning period, the installed capacity and power generation of coal-fired power will show a trend of rising first and then decreasing, and it is estimated that it will reach its peak during the period of 2025-2030. Following the change in the function of the coal-fired power unit in the system, the number of hours of use will gradually decrease, so that the peak of power generation will be earlier than the peak of the installed capacity. In terms of layout, coal-fired power units will exist more in the power supply. First, the economic advantages of coal-based power generation will be exerted. Second, the environmental pressure in the eastern and central regions will be alleviated. Third, it can be used to meet and deliver new energy.


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Gas and electricity are restricted by the elements of capital, and the space for increase is limited. China's natural gas resources are scarce, and the cost of gas is high, which restricts the development of gas and electricity. From the perspective of power generation, gas-fired power generation has not been economical in the near future, and the cost of new energy continues to decline. The economic competitiveness of gas power in the future is increasingly limited. From the peaking point of view, under the current power supply structure in China, by establishing a reasonable market mechanism and carrying out sensitive improvement, it is possible to announce the considerable peaking potential of coal-fired power, followed by the continuous decline in energy storage, the demand for business models gradually becoming richer and more interconnected. The grid's sensitive and optimized operation capability is increasing, and the people in the peaking of gas and electricity are not irreplaceable. According to the overall optimization planning results of the system, gas power in 2035 and 2050InstalledThe capacity is about 160 million - 210 million kilowatts, 170 million - 310 million kilowatts. In the case of re-electrification, the new energy installation plan is larger, and the required system adjustment capability is stronger, so the gas capacity is higher.

Nuclear power capacity has increased steadily, and development is limited by site space and planning and construction period. Nuclear power is a clean and reliable power source, and its use hours are relatively high. In the case of wind power and photovoltaic power generation planning, it can make a greater contribution to the system power balance, and nuclear power should be efficiently carried out on the basis of ensuring safety. However, China's nuclear power development is affected by factors such as the location of the power station and the planning and construction period. It is estimated that the installed capacity in 2035 and 2050 will reach 180 million and 220 million kilowatts.

Hydropower development is constrained by resource conditions and the potential for increase is relatively limited. Hydropower is an important energy strategic resource in China, and it is an important guarantee for the country to achieve the goal of transforming energy cleanliness and ending non-fossil energy development. However, China's hydropower development potential is limited, and it will be concentrated in the southwest region, and the development cost of inductive development is on the rise. Before 2035, hydropower still had the potential to develop and then became saturated. It is estimated that hydropower installed capacity will reach about 500 million and 540 million kilowatts in 2035 and 2050. In addition, the pumped storage capacity is steadily carried out. In 2035 and 2050, the installed capacity will reach about 100 million and 160 million kilowatts.

In the future, the proportion of clean energy generation will increase significantly, and the intensity of carbon emissions will drop significantly. In 2035, the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation will reach about 58%, and in 2050 it will be close to 80%. In the case of customary transformation and re-electrification, the carbon dioxide emission level per unit of power generation in 2035 will be reduced to 325 g/kWh and 317 g/kWh, which is about 56% and 55% of the 2017 level; and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of power generation in 2050. The level is reduced to 151g/kWh and 129g/kWh, which is about 26% and 22% of the 2017 level. The carbon emissions of the power system will peak around 2025, with a peak level of about 4.5 billion to 5 billion tons. In 2050, the power system emissions will drop to about 1.8 billion to 1.9 billion tons, which will effectively support China's energy low carbonization transformation.

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